Upright Insight Blog

5 Warning Signs Your Metrics Are Hiding the Truth About Your Business

Written by Alan Winters | Jun 24, 2025 10:15:04 PM

Your monthly business review looks solid. Revenue growth? Check. Customer acquisition? On track. Team morale surveys? Mostly positive.

So why does something feel wrong?

If you're experiencing that nagging sense that your metrics aren't telling the complete story, you're probably right. After working with dozens of SaaS companies—from scrappy startups to PE-owned platforms—I've learned that the most dangerous business problems hide in plain sight, disguised as acceptable performance.

The companies that scale successfully have learned to look beyond surface-level metrics to uncover the uncomfortable truths that drive sustainable growth. The ones that struggle? They mistake measurement for understanding.

Here are five warning signs that your metrics are obscuring critical business realities:

Warning Sign #1: Your Churn Rate Looks Fine, But Your Best Customers Are Leaving

The Surface Metric: Overall churn rate of 8% annually—well within industry benchmarks.

The Hidden Reality: Your highest-value customers are churning at 15%, while low-value accounts stick around.

I recently worked with a SaaS company celebrating their "industry-leading" churn rate. When we segmented their churn by customer value, a disturbing pattern emerged: customers paying over $50K annually were leaving at nearly double the rate of smaller accounts. The overall churn number looked healthy because they were retaining price-sensitive customers while losing their most profitable ones.

What to look for: Churn rates segmented by customer lifetime value, contract size, and strategic importance. If your most valuable customers are churning faster than your overall rate, you're essentially optimizing for the wrong retention strategy.

The uncomfortable question: Are you celebrating retention of customers you can't afford to keep?

Warning Sign #2: Your CAC Payback Period Seems Reasonable, But Sales Cycles Are Quietly Killing You

The Surface Metric: CAC payback period of 18 months—acceptable for your market.

The Hidden Reality: Sales cycles have stretched from 4 months to 8 months over the past year, but nobody's connecting the dots.

Most SaaS companies track average sales cycle length, but few analyze it with the granularity that reveals strategic problems. I've seen companies where enterprise sales cycles doubled while SMB cycles remained flat—a clear signal that their value proposition wasn't resonating with larger prospects. Yet leadership continued to push upmarket without addressing the fundamental misalignment. The result? Each quarter became harder to hit as deals that should have closed pushed into the next period.

What to look for: Sales cycle length broken down by deal size, customer vertical, direct vs. channel sales, lead source, and other significant dimensions important to your business. When enterprise cycles extend without corresponding increases in deal size or close rates, you're often looking at a positioning or product-market fit problem masquerading as a sales execution issue.

The uncomfortable question: Are you burning cash on longer sales cycles without proportional value increases?

Warning Sign #3: Your NPS Scores Are Strong, But Usage Data Tells a Different Story

The Surface Metric: Net Promoter Score of 45—solid performance that suggests customer satisfaction.

The Hidden Reality: Daily active usage has declined 20% over six months, indicating customers are finding alternatives.

Survey metrics like NPS capture sentiment at a moment in time, but behavioral metrics reveal what customers actually do. I've worked with companies whose customers were theoretically happy but practically disengaged. High NPS scores combined with declining usage often signal that customers are being polite in surveys while quietly evaluating alternatives.

The uncomfortable question: Are your customers saying they love you while slowly breaking up with you?

Warning Sign #4: Revenue Growth Looks Consistent, But Unit Economics Are Deteriorating

The Surface Metric: Monthly recurring revenue growing at 15%—exactly on plan.

The Hidden Reality: Customer acquisition costs have increased 40% while average contract values have remained flat.

Revenue growth can mask serious underlying problems, especially when companies are spending more to acquire each customer without proportional increases in customer value. This often happens gradually, making it hard to spot until unit economics have degraded significantly.

What to look for: CAC trends by quarter, broken down by channel and customer segment. If CAC is rising faster than customer lifetime value, you're buying growth rather than building it sustainably.

The uncomfortable question: Are you mortgaging your future to hit this quarter's numbers?

Warning Sign #5: Your Team Productivity Metrics Look Good, But Strategic Progress Has Stalled

The Surface Metric: Development velocity is up 25%, and support ticket resolution time has improved.

The Hidden Reality: Only 30% of engineering time is spent on strategic priorities, while 50% goes to maintenance and 20% to bug fixes—leaving minimal capacity for the initiatives that drive competitive advantage.

Operational efficiency metrics often improve right before companies hit strategic walls. Teams get better at executing existing processes while losing the capacity to build breakthrough capabilities. This creates a dangerous illusion of productivity while competitive advantage erodes.

What to look for: Strategic initiative releases per time period. Percentage of development time spent on strategic priorities vs. maintenance of those same priorities vs. general maintenance and bug fixes. Measure the trend of both. If your teams are getting more efficient at keeping the lights on while starving strategic development, you're optimizing for decline.

The uncomfortable question: Are you becoming really good at maintaining what you have while competitors build what comes next?

The Metrics Mirage: Why This Happens

These blind spots aren't accidents—they're the predictable result of how most companies approach measurement:

  • Comfort with averages: Most dashboards show averages that smooth over critical variations
  • Lagging indicators: Traditional metrics tell you what happened, not what's about to happen
  • Departmental silos: Each team optimizes their own metrics without seeing system-wide effects
  • Investor reporting pressure: The need to show consistent progress can discourage deeper analysis
  • Tool limitations: Most analytics platforms make it easier to track surface metrics than dig into root causes

Building X-Ray Vision for Your Business

The most successful SaaS companies I work with have developed what I call "metrics x-ray vision"—the ability to see through surface performance to underlying business health. They've learned to ask uncomfortable questions and segment their data in ways that reveal inconvenient truths.

Start with these diagnostic questions:

  1. Segment everything: What does this metric look like when broken down by customer size, vertical, acquisition channel, and time cohort?
  2. Follow the money: Which customers generate disproportionate value, and are we retaining them better than average?
  3. Connect leading and lagging indicators: If this lagging metric is good, what should we expect to see in leading indicators?
  4. Question efficiency gains: Are we getting more efficient at activities that drive growth, or just at activities that feel productive?
  5. Look for contradictions: Where do our quantitative metrics contradict our qualitative insights?

The Truth Advantage

Companies that develop comfort with uncomfortable metrics gain a significant competitive advantage. They spot problems while there's still time to fix them. They identify opportunities that competitors miss. Most importantly, they build businesses on reality rather than hope.

The cost of metrics that hide the truth isn't just missed opportunities—it's the expensive surprise of discovering problems too late to address them efficiently.

Your dashboard should make you slightly uncomfortable. If all your metrics look good all the time, you're probably not measuring the right things.

The question isn't whether your business has problems. Every business has problems. The question is whether your metrics help you see them coming.

Ready to uncover what your metrics are really telling you? I help SaaS executives develop the analytical frameworks and leadership practices needed to build businesses on truth rather than hope. Book a discovery call to discuss your company's unique measurement challenges.